Dobson + Bolduc - (2 x RD1 + Heino + Mailloux) = ?
Noah Dobson and Zachary Bolduc trades review
This article is a collab between and ALEF.
Noah Dobson for 16th, 17th overall picks and Emil Heineman
With the Noah Dobson trade, Kent Hughes made a bold move and also managed to partake in an annual tradition, trading away first-round draft picks (twice the fun this year!). Let’s look at what this means for the Habs.
Review of the 2024-2025 defensemen corps
First, let’s look at the minutes and age distribution, taken from HockeyViz.com. Martin St. Louis split the heavy minutes between 4 main players, three of them being left-handed. The third pair was filled with David Savard and either Struble or Xhekaj. In terms of age, both Matheson and Carrier don’t quite fit within the age window of the main stars.
As for quality, it’s possible to have an idea of the caliber of the players thanks to a data dump from Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic. I tried to replicate a visualization used by Micah McCurdy (HockeyViz), who identifies D1 to D6 based on his synthetic goals (sG) calculations. I made a similar visualization using the Net Ratings published by Dom Luszczyszyn. The chart below presents the quality of the Habs D since the new administration took over (Gorton, Hughes, St. Louis). Since some values were stacked on each other, I added some jitters when it was time to write the name. I hope it makes it a bit clearer. As we can see, the Habs struck gold when they drafted Huston, seemingly finding a bona fide #1 D, a young one at that, in the late 2nd round. Besides Huston, Struble, (in limited minutes) Guhle, and Carrier played at what could be described as NHL level. Matheson went from back-to-back top-3 quality seasons to slightly below NHL level. Maybe he could bounce back in a limited role and with a full summer to heal injuries.
What are the Habs getting in Noah Dobson
A lot has already been written about Dobson, and a lot has been said about how his game stepped back this season. He did go from a career high of 70 points to 39 points this season. Still, per hockeyviz and Dom Luszczyszyn, he seemed to still play at a D1 quality. He is also big and right-handed, two things that are lacking in MTL right now. For the 2024-2025 season, he contributed similarly on offense and on defense. While it would make sense to match him with Guhle on a top pair, he could cross-shift with Hutson if needed. He also provides a luxury back-up option on the power play if Hutson gets injured. Dobson could still be improving, as 90% of players peak between the ages of 23 and 291 and his net rating is on a general upward trajectory.
For people who still assess defenseman with points, don’t expect Dobson to reach 70 points again. With Huston holding the keys of the power-play, it is difficult to imagine that Dobson will get the same opportunities on the man advantage he used to have with the Islanders. Dobson is extremely good when moving the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone. His skating and his elite passing skill allow him to be a threat when carrying the puck. We can’t call him a transition god because although he excels at carrying the puck, he struggles a ton at defending off the rush. It is one of the few areas where he needs to put up some work. When defending, he would rather use stick-checks and small pressures than big hits and box-outs like most defensemen with his frame. Most models have him as a player with good isolated defensive impact, his defense (coachable skill) will probably be subjected to adjustment under his new coach.
Dobson arrives in Montreal with a fat contract. It is now common for first pair offensive defenseman to sign at an AAV as high a 9mil. We saw and we will see more of this (Hutson 👀). During a contract, the AAV stays the same but, the impact on the salary cap (what is really important – also known as Cap%) changes. So when you assess a contract, it is important to take context into consideration and given the context, 9.5M$ might look insanely high, but in a reality where everyone know that the salary cap will not stay flat (like it once was), it is a much more reasonable deal.
Conclusion
The addition of Dobson looks like a slam dunk for the Habs organization. He fits in terms of position and profile for a long time. Hockey is a strong-link game2 (team success is mainly influenced by the performances of the team’s best players), and players like Dobson are difficult to find in the draft or free agency. The Canadiens took a calculated risk in their rebuild by trading away 2 first fround picks who might have not aligned with their contention window. Losing Heineman can feel dissapointing although he graded out as an 11th forward per net ratings (maybe due to bad luck with injuries). Despite trading him away, he’s the type of player a successful organization should not have difficulty replacing.
OT - What is a draft pick worth
To better compare the deal, we could also wonder how valuable the 16th and 17th picks are. By cross-referencing the Net Ratings of players to their overall position and applying a curve fitting method (y = a*e^-bx+c), we can see that on average, these picks are not necessarily that valuable, although the variance is really high (it is more difficult to make confident predictions because the outcomes are all over the place). Their value seems to be maxing out at close to 20 ratings, but when making such trade, it’s fair for an organization to make the safe bet that the player they get in return might be better than prospects available with those picks. We can remember when the Canadiens traded 2 picks for Andrew Shaw and one of those two selections turned to be elite goal scorer Alex DeBrincat. On the other end, the Oilers once traded a lambda 2nd round picks for Brett Kulak… and that late 2nd round pick turned out to be one of the most entertaining young players in hockey : Lane Hutson. Betting against the average is risk that can be worth taking.
Zachary Bolduc for Logan Mailloux
Logan Mailloux has all the making of a top D-man. He’s big, with a big shot, and fairly physical. If you ignore the controversy, maybe he would have more people rooting for him. He’s a two time AHL all-star, but has not broken through the NHL. Having watched him play live, he doesn’t look like the fastest skater, but I will refrain from analysing him. He doesn’t appear in the Net Rating database, and he would only have a small sample size anyway. I assume that the Canadiens know well what they had in him and yet, they have tried to trade him for over a year. They didn’t think he was ready to play in the NHL last year despite the fact that the D-core was pretty weak. In return for him, the Habs have somehow been able to get Zachary Bolduc from St. Louis. From the same draft class as Mailloux, Bolduc has already played 97 NHL games and was good for 19 goals and 36 points last year. Just on the surface level, the trade seems like a no brainer. It also makes sense from a personnel perspective. With Dobson, Carrier and Reinbacher, it did not look like Mailloux would find a role in the short to medium term, but there are many holes on the offense for Bolduc to fill, even without many unrestricted free agents leaving. As you can see below, Bolduc played well this season, and he’s a true NHL caliber player since entering the league, with what one would assume is still some room to grow. In terms of Net Ratings, as you can see below, he played as a fringe first line player last year. Without going through all the Habs depth chart, this would rank third last year, in front of Slafkovsky. He also seems to play a strong two way game, with a very good defensive rating, which could fit well with Demidov, who still has to improve on that end. The fit between the two young wingers could be a little problematic as they both prefer to play on the right side. On the Blues end, they feel like they felt like they had a surplus of forwards and that Mailloux, a right handed defenseman, would bolster their defense. We are not a Blues blog, so we will stop there talking about the St. Louis.
Bolduc has found a lot of success on the 1st unit of PP with STL. He was so good in the bumper spot that the team completely changed their strategy to run the man advange through him. His shot, his willingness to go in front of the net, his ability to get lost in coverage and his quick hands in tight have allowed him to be one of the best goal scorers of the league after the Four Nations tournament. He does not look extremely fast, but he is a born goal scorer and he strive through physical play. His style will turn him into a fan favourite in no time. In terms of expectations, it is difficult to predict if he will get time on the first unit of man advantage (that generally skyrockets point production), but he is expected to see a rise in time on ice at even strength. Bolduc should get a lot of opportunities to showcase his talent on the 2nd and 3rd lines.