Life is sometimes funny.
I recently got my biggest burst in followers ever without even being particularly active on Twitter — no way I call it X — or on the blog itself. The recipe of that random rise in subscribers on my blog? The Power of Friendship. In fact, my good friend Gabriel Foley has been much active than me and his blog recommends mine. I will embed his blog so you can see the work of my amazing friend.
The Power of Friendship is a popular theme in hockey lately, especially on the Canadiens. Friendships have always been part of hockey. As fans, we always dreamed that our favourite players are the best friends in the entire world even if it wasn’t always the case. From the Subban-Weber friendship — materialized with The Triple-Low-5, to the pretty Mint Kotkaniemi-Mete friendship to whoever Cole Caufield hangs out with now, Montreal always has fun friendships. Players on the team seem to attribute a big part of their current success to the bond they share on and off the ice.
There is a new friendship in town
There is a new friend in the group this season. Elite goalscorer Patrik Laine was acquire with a 2nd round pick last summer for depth defenseman Jordan Harris. What was the trap? In a context where the Salary Cap is the most important asset in the hockey market, the forward would occupy 8.7 millions $ on Montreal’s cap for each of the 2 seasons left in his contract. It represents ~10% for this season. Laine came in to help a team that is popular for having great goaltending, and not so good goal scoring power. And despite a freak injury that sidelined him for the first part of the season, his came in like a rock star. 8 goals in his first 9 games with the team. It felt like everything he touched turned into goals. What makes Laine special is his ability to score goals even when the goalie is not screened and in place to face the shot. His release has a ton of power and is extremely accurate. Now, he averages a little under a goal every 2 games — which is really good , and he has diversified his game and became a more dangerous offensive threat. We have seen him more recently create space space for his teammates at a higher frequency. The results speak for themselves : Alex Newhook (his linemate) has been one of the best Hab in the last month or so.
Why I stopped paying for Hockey Analytics subscriptions
I actually stopped paying for hockey analytics subscriptions this season. The reasons are simple :
I didn’t use them unless I had a point to prove on socials — and I spend significantly less time on socials since I graduated and I have a job - congrats to me — or an article to write — I don’t write much .
I want to build what I use because I have more control on it - and i can come up with the things you will see in the next few lines and articles.
I will spend more time understanding the game of Hockey through reading, videos, etc. I actually got a chance to talk with hockey consultant/coach — +many other hats — Jack Han after reading his book, and I feel better writing about hockey and watching hockey after picking up some of his thoughts.
I still encourage you to support creators if it is something that you consume a lot. There is a lot of work behind the scenes and lots of great content. I will probably get back to subscriptions once I achieved my current goals. Lots of good content out there!
The Power Play looks better with Laine on it
From my viewings, I understood that Montreal’s Power-Play much more dangerous since Patrik Laine came back from his injury. Every shot he makes is extremely dangerous. And Lane Hutson can count on his new friend Patrik Laine to help him get easy assists for his Calder run. I can also agree with the idea that Patrik Laine offers him the assists he would get if his linemates had at least average finishing skills. I feel that any Laine shot can go in. He is the first hab to make me feel like that since Shea Weber. It turns out that I am not the only one to feel like that. Many Habs opponents have adjusted their penalty-kill tactics to prevent shots from the Finnish sniper. They would rather play a 4v3 with a man always on Laine than a normal 5v4. So, for this first article in months, I wanted to go on a positive note — because I was often criticized for being negative… I am just honnest to be fair — and quantify how better Habs PP is with Patrik Laine… and I was not ready for the results in fact, I was, but I thought I would be proven wrong.
Show the Numbers!
Considering the sample size is similar, I thought it was fair to compare how the Canadiens did on the PP in games where Laine was playing against how they did in games where he did not play.
Quite surprising! A 24% efficiency would rank them among the most successful man-advantages while a 17% would rank them among the worst. Now, they have an efficiency of 21% which ranks them in the middle of the NHL. Not good, not bad either. Is Laine the problem? I don’t think so.
The Weber Theory (You Heard It Here First)
I think that what might explain this surprising phenomenon is the the Weber theory. Theory that I just created that suggests that teams with lack of talent upfront will rely on one good shooter on PP — which makes the Power Play worse because when he doesn’t shoot, the rest of the team almost forgets how to play. It happened when Shea Weber was feeding Webombs for the Montreal Canadiens. A good power play is one that makes the defense move and that is unpredictable. Laine takes 40% of the shot attempts when he is on the ice on PP.
When is is not on the ice on PP, the Canadiens like to distribute the puck a little bit more. Cole Caufield leads the team with 13% of shot attempts and is followed by Alex Newhook, Nick Suzuki and Mike Matheson just over 10%.
Laine Is Worth It
Laine deserves the right to shoot a ton on the man advantage. He scored over 31% of the Montreal Canadiens PP goals this season despite missing half of the season. He built real estate on the left flank and pushed Cole Caufield outside of his former home on the PP. I think he made the Canadiens’ man advantage look entertaining by himself with a little help from Hutson.
I think Montreal should randomly rotate Caufield and Laine the left flank to create confusion for the defending team. Call me Coach Max now. But, I don’t worry too much about the 2024-25 edition of the Canadiens’ PP since it is expected to change drastically as they welcome the russian prodigy Ivan Demidov next season.
Sorry if I made mistakes : I rushed a little bit to make sure I release the article tonight. Sorry to professional data providers if my data is not 100% accurate : I will blame the data engineer — myself. I still hope you enjoyed reading this piece. The work behind it is actually crazy : building a data scraper for months, finding out that it has mistakes as I am writing the article, building temporary fixes, temporary fixes crashing, giving up on the last part of my article because of it. Writing blogs is always an adventure full of unexpected traps.
Before I leave you I have a couple of things to tell you :
I might reach 100 followers on my blog — I might have reached that milestone already. I just want to say thank you from the bottom of my heart. I really appreciate you.
I like to talk about hockey with people; My DMs are always open to disucss hockey with a fellow hockey enjoyer.
Let me know if you have a burning question that you want me to address in my next blog : I will be happy to find the answers to YOUR questions
I developped a really fun hobby lately : learning languages. I am currently learning the 2nd most spoken language in the world right now. I started over a year ago. I suggest you to learn a language if you want to : it is a massive challenge, but really rewarding. And if you speak Mandarin Chinese, feel free to reach out to me. My other favorite
programminglanguage is Python. Please laugh.
My Montreal Canadiens will be in the Playoffs in a couple of weeks. On that note, I wish you a great last stretch of the regular season! I wish your favorite team to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs if they don’t fight for the 2nd Wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference. The snow is melting, so we should also expect our favourite public scouts to come out of hiding with their super knowledge about prospects. But as you already know, the best takes on prospects and on hockey in general will come from… my mouth. So feel free to Subscibe to my blog and follow me on Twitter if you want to look smarter than everyone in your hockey groups.
See you later alligator 🐊
Dernier match contre Colorado, ils mettaient un joueur collé sur lui et Laine bougeait pas. Ça peut être une stratégie intéressante de créer un "4v3" sur le reste de la zone, mais faudrait que les joueurs soient capables d'en profiter.
Nice article max, I wonder if the results would change if you only looked at PP1. Of course like you said it will likely be moot next year when Demidov joins the team. Interesting thought on that, does Caufield get removed from PP1 for Demidov? Maybe not game 1 but down the line since no one has the in front/forecheck the puck profile like Slaf.